

In the exit polls, House Republicans lost independents by a 12-point margin and women by a 19-point margin.įortunately, the geography for the Senate was very positive for Republicans and they won a six-seat majority. Trump made the call to focus the Republican closing argument on the so-called immigration “caravan” rather than the party’s strong suit - the economy. You have to go back to President Reagan’s rout of Walter Mondale in 1984 to see those four states in the Republican column.īut in 2018, despite one of the best jobs reports out the Friday before the election, Republicans lost 41 seats and the House majority after holding it for eight years. Winning the Electoral College while losing the popular vote was a remarkable outcome, and he did it by winning Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. His initial victory in 2016 was a remarkable one. They are very unhappy with the direction of the economy, but with the focus on indictments, trials and personal grievances, for many voters, it feels like watching reruns from the past three elections.Īnd this is where Trump does have a problem in contrast to the rest of the field.

Voters, especially independents, want to hear about the candidates’ policies.

Right now, the media is almost singularly focused on events surrounding Trump, which is overwhelming all other issues.
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Republicans need a candidate who knows how to win not just for themselves but for the party as well. So presidential candidates need to address how and why they can win a general election and how their effort will positively impact Republican Senate and House candidates who still have a significant advantage as the country has more confidence in the Republican Party to handle the top issue, the economy. Here’s the challenge: While Republican primary voters will choose their nominee, independent voters will choose the next president and Congress.

The GOP needs to have the strongest possible candidate at the top of the ticket if Republicans are going to win not only the White House but also the majority in the Senate and an expanded majority in the House. This is not a time for political retribution or grievance voting because there is more at stake in this election than the presidency, important as it is. But in the end, for Republican voters who will choose their party’s nominee, there is an even more important question that should drive their decision: “Which candidate is best positioned to win the general election in 2024?” But Trump has even managed to maintain leads in states that are the home territory of other candidates, with Florida and South Carolina the most obvious examples.Īssessing the strengths of the field at this point is part of the process and makes sense. Chris Sununu, has made his antipathy toward Trump clear. Kim Reynolds notwithstanding, and in New Hampshire, where its popular governor, Republican Gov. Trump’s dominance can be seen in the kickoff state of Iowa, his ill-advised attack on popular GOP Gov. As the GOP nomination process begins to heat up, the question getting the most attention, especially from the media, is “Can anyone get the traction to effectively challenge Donald Trump and win the nomination, given the former president has significant leads at both the national and state levels?”
